BC Copper 2509 closed lower amid volatile trading, with the price spread continuing to invert under tariff disruptions [SMM BC Copper Commentary]

Today, the most-traded BC copper 2509 contract opened at 70,250 yuan/mt and closed in the red. During the night session, the most-traded BC copper 2509 contract initially rose, touching an intraday high of 70,390 yuan/mt. Subsequently, the center of copper prices gradually shifted downward, reaching a low of 69,660 yuan/mt. During the day session, copper prices fluctuated considerably, ultimately closing at 69,980 yuan/mt, marking a 0.26% decline. Open interest reached 3,439 lots, an increase of 347 lots from the previous trading day, with trading volume reaching 4,890 lots. From a macro perspective, Chile's move to seek exemption from copper tariffs directly dragged down US copper prices, with LME copper and SHFE copper also experiencing pressure and fluctuations. As the August 1 deadline for copper tariffs approaches, market attention is focused on whether the 50% tariff will ultimately be implemented. Related policies remain uncertain, further exacerbating price volatility. On the fundamental side, the latest supply-side data shows that LME copper inventories increased by 225 mt to 127,625 mt. On the demand side, performance has been weak due to the combined effects of off-season factors and high copper prices.

The most-traded SHFE copper 2509 contract closed at 78,840 yuan/mt. If we consider the most-traded BC copper 2509 contract's closing price of 69,980 yuan/mt, its after-tax price would be 79,077 yuan/mt. The price spread between the SHFE copper 2509 contract and the BC copper contract is -237, indicating an inverted spread that has narrowed compared to the previous day.